In the last ten years, the prison population has increased 45.6%. The main cause of the increase is a 116% increase in the number of offenders being sent to prison on remand. Over 14,000 people remanded each year putting enormous pressure on the need for prison beds. (Making matters worse, none of them are allowed to attend rehabilitation programmes; only a small percentage of sentenced prisoners are eligible.)

For the first time ever, this year’s justice sector forecasts predict a 6.2% decrease in the population in the next 10 years. The sentenced population is forecast to fall by 6% and the remand population by 7%. But the fall may even be greater than this – one scenario in the forecast suggests the remand population could fall by as much as 23%.

Those claiming that the reduction in prison population is due to better policing or reduced crime have not understood (and have misinterpreted) the data upon which prison projections are made. The turnaround in remand figures actually began in 2007 after the Labour Government passed the Sentencing Amendment Act. The Act introduced two new non-custodial, community-based sentences - community detention and intensive supervision. It also introduced home detention as a separate, stand-alone sentence. This allowed judges to impose Home Detention without offenders having to go to prison first - and then apply for Home Detention from prison.

As a result, from 2008 onwards the number of offenders given Home Detention and new community based sentences has gone up dramatically – by between 40% and 50%. It has taken three years for this to impact on the prison projections and the trend to become apparent.

In other words, the projected drop in the prison population has very little to do with the crime rate, better policing or any other factor. It’s almost entirely due to the sentencing legislation passed in 2007 which gave judges more community-based options. That puts the 'sense' into sensible sentencing.

Flying Blind - How the justice system perpetuates crime and the Corrections Department fails to correct.